Estimates from the National Federation of Motor Vehicles (Fenabrave) based on the sales of new cars in 2013 indicate that by 2020, the Brazilian market industry will grow an average of 6.2% per year, higher than the world average of 5% per year, as can be concluded by graph 5. Currently, the regions that mostly contribute to these numbers are the Southeast and South. Growth is expected to be driven by the Central-West regions and especially the Northeast in terms of social transformation and elevation on a large number of families into the middle class.
Since the cargo transportation matrix in Brazil is essentially by road (approximately 65%), production and marketing of trucks grows more than 10% per year for the last two years. A critical factor for a good performance is the very old national fleet, with an average age of 22 years. The consumer market becomes aware that this entails risks to the safety of drivers and roads, plus there is clear evidence that the old models are up to 20% less efficient than the modern ones. This market is especially attractive in the South and Central-West regions, due to being the largest producers of agricultural commodities in the country.
According to the IBGE, the area cultivated in Brazil has already surpassed 53 million hectares. In the last two decades, this number has increased by over 40%. However, the production increased over 150% during this interval, expected to reach 198 million tons of grain in 2015. The evolution is due to genetic improvement and a significant contribution to the implementation of mechanization and new technologies. Thus, the Agricultural Machinery market is constantly growing (with a rate of over 25% in sales in 2013), stimulated by providing incentives as a reduction of interest rates on financing implements. With clear focus on the South and Central West of Brazil, the access to major ports facilitates the exporting of surplus production.
In the beginning of the last decade, Brazil sold annually approximately 600,000 motorcycles. At the end of 2010, this number already figured in the house of 1 million and 800 thousand new units per year, a level at which it is fluctuating for the past few years. This phenomenon is due to many factors, including access to credit, consumer’s behavioural change, rise of activities linked to the vehicle and others. It is estimated that by 2020, the number of motorcycles will exceed 30% of the national vehicle fleet (currently at 16%). This market is very polarized with one player holding more than 80% of the market share and production is concentrated in Manaus (Free Economic Zone). Alternatively, brands with regional focusing are installed, customizing products to the needs of the local population. This type of phenomenon can be seen in the Northeast. In addition, the significant growth of the fleet involves an attractive market for maintenance parts.
The Brazilian Aerospace production sector is broad, including commercial and military, light and medium-sized aircrafts, helicopters, gliders, sounding rockets and satellites. Specifically in the medium commercial aircraft industry, the country ranks as a world leader. Approximately 80% of the labour force is concentrated in São Paulo. Besides this, the only manufacturer of helicopters in Latin America is located in Minas Gerais, relevant factor since the country has a fleet of 2000 units. All this motivates the development of the chain of related suppliers, given the fact that the industry has a committed demand for several years.
In the Naval sector, the national shipyards have guaranteed demand until 2020. The main driver is the global trend of offshore oil exploration, with the construction of exploration rigs. According to Global Marine Trends, currently the number of platforms in the world is approximately 300 and in 2030, 618 are expected. In Brazil, the scenario is no different: with the discovery of pre-salt and the start of mass exploration, the amount of platforms should increase 20%. In the group of vessels, the time is not different. However, a national particularity is the presence of an extensive network of navigable rivers, so the construction of fluvial convoys is on the rise and it is a regional project activity, given the fact that the structures are built close to the river corridors for which they are intended.